Thursday, 9 February 2012

Minnesota windfall

Mr Santorum won Minnesota with 44%, of the vote, 17 points ahead of his closest rival in the state, Ron Paul. Mr Romney won 19% of the Mid-Western state's vote.
In Colorado, a state Mr Romney was favoured to win, the former Massachusetts governor lost to Mr Santorum by 5%, 40% to 35%.
While he succeeded in all three states, Mr Santorum was not allocated any delegates in Missouri, where Tuesday's result was dubbed a "beauty contest". It will actually award its delegates via caucuses held next month.
Mitt Romney congratulated Rick Santorum, but vowed to press on
Pitching himself as the only true conservative in the race, Mr Santorum had campaigned hard in Minnesota and Missouri - states with significant blocs of Tea Party and evangelical Christian voters respectively.
Polls showed him performing well, and predicted the possibility he would win in either or both states. But while Mr Romney's team had sought to manage expectations, they still retained hopes of a Colorado victory.
The former Pennsylvania senator, who had not won a contest since his narrow win in Iowa's caucuses in January, has been viewed as a long-shot candidate.
Tuesday's victories will inject new momentum into his campaign, as he hopes to displace Mr Gingrich as Mr Romney's main challenger.
Mr Gingrich told CNN: "I think the big story coming out tonight is going to be that it's very hard for the elite media to portray Governor Romney as the inevitable nominee after tonight's over."

Tuesday, 24 January 2012

World Bank's crisis warning

The World Bank says the global economy is on the edge of a new financial crisis, deeper and more damaging than the one that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Its latest six-monthly assessment of global economic prospects halves its forecast for growth among high-income countries, and pushes its forecast for countries using the euro into negative territory.

It has slashed its global growth forecast for 2012 from 3.6 per cent to 2.5 per cent. High-income nations are forecast to grow at 1.4 per cent rather than 2.7 per cent. The euro area's economy will shrink 0.3 per cent.

In the event of such a crisis, "activity is unlikely to bounce back as quickly as it did in 2008/09, in part because high-income countries will not have the fiscal resources to launch as strong a countercyclical policy response or to offer the same level of support to troubled financial institutions".

Responding to the report, acting treasurer Bill Shorten said there was no doubt Australia faced "a tough year ahead".

"But in the face of these major threats, Australians can be confident in our strong economic fundamentals.

"The Australian economy is now around 7 per cent larger than it was prior to the global financial crisis and the global recession. By way of comparison, the United States is just back to – or above – where it was prior to the crisis.

"We have a proven track record, having fought off the global recession and the worst the world can throw at us."

Among the changes, the World Bank now expects the US to expand 2.2 per cent in its presidential election year, down from an earlier forecast of 2.9 per cent.

Australia's two biggest export markets will also have slower growth. China's economy will expand 8.4 per cent this year, slower than the 9.2 per cent growth rate reported yesterday for 2011. That forecast, though, is unchanged from the World Bank's November update.

Japan's economy will grow 1.9 per cent in 2012, down from the 2.6 per cent pace predicted by the bank in June.

India, one of Australia's fastest growing markets, will expand 6.5 per cent in 2012, sharply slower than the 8.4 per cent rate tipped earlier by the bank.

The World Bank said the financial turmoil caused by the escalation of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe was spreading to both developing and high-income nations and was generating ‘‘significant headwinds’’.